We expect the growth in prices, sales levels, and housing starts to moderate from recent highs, but remain elevated in 2022. Robust GDP growth, higher employment and net migration will support demand. 

In 2023 and 2024, the growth in prices will moderate with sales and starts activity remaining above long-run averages. Homeownership affordability will decline, with the growth in prices expected to outpace income growth. Rental affordability is also set to decline from increasing rental demand and low stocks of rental housing. 

The growth in prices will likely continue to be led by markets with already low listings, including Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal. 

Supply constraints on construction will continue to impact major centres and especially Vancouver and Toronto, highlighting the central role of housing supply in determining affordability.

Source: CMHC